Us Politics · resolved market
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6ae05afd09332f7ed3e1a4424df234f8e2b64ba79c43aec4e85c278ee76a947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,911$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.93 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 872.78$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.21 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 52c | 691.68$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 64c | 410$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.58 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 340$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 49c | 310.73$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 25c | 299.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.11 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked Yes | 36c | 265.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 190.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 57c | 188.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 24c | 133.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…1951backed No | 77c | 129.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…b536backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 110.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 104$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 99.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 50c | 98.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 13c | 92.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 27c | 75.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 64c | 65.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 59c | 59.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 26c | 53.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 52.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 69c | 50.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked Yes | 78c | 38.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 48c | 29.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…72a6backed Yes | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…b67bbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed No | 58c | 19.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15?this page
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 30?Yes won
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.