TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Keysof Keys, Maria
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,886 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cb9…32f2backed Keys53c21,000$11,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,831.4252844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Maria47c7,564$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.894,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3dc…eaa8backed Maria51c3,933$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011342.5%48 W · 65 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Maria47c3,881$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.444,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Keys52c2,700$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.9362545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Maria47c2,634$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.311,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5901…63a2backed Keys53c2,322$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.1911051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Maria47c1,898$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90042341.4%175 W · 248 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Keys54c1,866$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.9744754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Maria47c1,694$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.0926555.8%148 W · 117 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked Keys54c1,667$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.672951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…6eacbacked Keys51c1,585$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.182536%9 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Maria46c1,449$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.0910751.4%55 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Maria3c1,259$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.282,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Maria48c1,094$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.5948842%205 W · 283 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Maria47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.521,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Maria39c922.84$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.322,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Maria47c903.8$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.322,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Maria48c833.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40043743.7%191 W · 246 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Keys52c708.56$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.111,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Maria47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Maria46c599.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.147,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Maria47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2359,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Keys54c480$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.85349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Keys54c441.58$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.8668350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdae2…3151backed Keys54c429.9$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.771118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-57.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Maria47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008956.2%50 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff6…348fbacked Maria47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick42cpaid+77.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Maria47c422.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Maria47c409.13$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.291,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c2…b6a5backed Maria47c408.72$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.14738.3%18 W · 29 L-7.7wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Maria51c402.06$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1c…a90abacked Keys71c366.19$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.25248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Keys52c300.44$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2121655.6%120 W · 96 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Maria47c261.49$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.91,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Keys51c244$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.721,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Maria46c205.93$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.731,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Maria43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.14,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Maria50c198.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058045.9%266 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Maria47c187.5$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.21,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Keys55c181.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.912576%19 W · 6 L+6.6wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+55.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf025…893cbacked Maria51c164.86$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Keys52c144.77$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8944442.3%188 W · 256 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed Maria42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5039451.8%204 W · 190 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Maria42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5094255.8%526 W · 416 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3054…055bbacked Maria42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013752.6%72 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Maria42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028557.9%165 W · 120 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Maria42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049056.9%279 W · 211 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Maria42c107.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Maria47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508243.9%36 W · 46 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Maria47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015937.7%60 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a8…b1f7backed Maria51c104.8$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5328738.3%110 W · 177 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Maria50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015751.6%81 W · 76 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Keys50c98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4933558.5%196 W · 139 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Keys63c95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2548738.4%187 W · 300 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Maria55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Keys54c89.46$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1560446.7%282 W · 322 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Maria47c87.23$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Maria47c87.23$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee5a…9f70backed Keys47c85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0535641.3%147 W · 209 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Maria47c83.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4139149.1%192 W · 199 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Keys77c79.33$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3334748.1%167 W · 180 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Keys55c73.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.092,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Maria47c70.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,35638.3%520 W · 836 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7285…3273backed Keys54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.28450%42 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Maria47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3048355.1%266 W · 217 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…eeb9backed Maria37c53.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.829147.8%139 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe005…090abacked Keys58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.722729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Keys54c51.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.661,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Keys54c51.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6419445.4%88 W · 106 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c2e…b55cbacked Maria20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109245.7%42 W · 50 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4846…32e0backed Keys54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.38251.2%42 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bce…db46backed Maria42c42.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1815854.4%86 W · 72 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7497…18cebacked Maria48c42.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked Keys73c41.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.313534.3%12 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Keys80c39.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.875343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed Keys66c39.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.254528.9%13 W · 32 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Maria47c34.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3794058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe840…733cbacked Maria47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512945.7%59 W · 70 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Keys54c27.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4924446.3%113 W · 131 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Keys53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.45754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02cd…cedcbacked Maria50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.