College Football · resolved market
Spread: New Mexico (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6db519adbe49348588406e9ffbd9bdd3577169c8e41957abe11ef6fba0a6a6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexicoof New Mexico, Air Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Air Force | 52c | 143,307$74,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,469.35 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed New Mexico | 48c | 32,000$15,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,640 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed New Mexico | 48c | 30,459$14,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,838.74 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed New Mexico | 48c | 20,823$9,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,828.19 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed New Mexico | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed New Mexico | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,650 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico | 48c | 12,465$5,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,492.47 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Air Force | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed New Mexico | 48c | 4,711$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.72 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed New Mexico | 48c | 4,500$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Air Force | 52c | 3,644$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.18 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed New Mexico | 48c | 3,500$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Air Force | 51c | 2,740$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.32 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked New Mexico | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed New Mexico | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked New Mexico | 48c | 1,769$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.84 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed New Mexico | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed New Mexico | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed New Mexico | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed New Mexico | 48c | 457$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.71 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed New Mexico | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked New Mexico | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Air Force | 51c | 305$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.55 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked New Mexico | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed New Mexico | 48c | 273.52$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.23 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked New Mexico | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed New Mexico | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed New Mexico | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked New Mexico | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed New Mexico | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed New Mexico | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked New Mexico | 48c | 84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Air Force | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked New Mexico | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked New Mexico | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed New Mexico | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed New Mexico | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New Mexico (-3.5)this page
- New Mexico vs. Air ForceNew Mexico won
- New Mexico vs. Air Force: O/U 53.5Under won
- New Mexico vs. Air Force: O/U 54.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.