NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e943d2f6d06cd1c8600be4f4533afd9b89279e7ef7e6392ed75859d5793e98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 4,969$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.4 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 53c | 1,896$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 74c | 1,781$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.24 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 51c | 1,535$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 637.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.08 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 51c | 420$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 49c | 420$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…8cdcbacked Under | 50c | 396.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 234.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 123.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 51c | 115$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 103.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…45e0backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5this page
- Jets vs. RavensRavens won
- Jets vs. Ravens: 1H MoneylineJets won
- Spread: Ravens (-13.5)Jets won
- Spread: Ravens (-14.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.