NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a79da7324814fedb915d537a5e81ed4774999f5dc0a43bc59bfb417454f66e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Ravens, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Jets | 54c | 186,097$100,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,097.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ravens | 46c | 57,511$26,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,330.78 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ravens | 46c | 44,053$20,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,300.13 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Ravens | 46c | 40,000$18,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,400 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Ravens | 48c | 25,775$12,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,368.25 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ravens | 46c | 20,100$9,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,245 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Jets | 53c | 18,874$10,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,784.77 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ravens | 46c | 7,495$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.18 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jets | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ravens | 46c | 4,373$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.61 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Ravens | 49c | 3,800$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Ravens | 46c | 3,760$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.86 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ravens | 47c | 3,097$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.52 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Ravens | 47c | 2,500$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Ravens | 47c | 2,099$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.58 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Jets | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ravens | 46c | 1,522$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.12 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Ravens | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jets | 60c | 940$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Jets | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Jets | 55c | 696$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.2 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Ravens | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jets | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Jets | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ravens | 41c | 498$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.18 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Jets | 52c | 490$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Ravens | 46c | 409$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Ravens | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Ravens | 46c | 376$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Jets | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jets | 54c | 258.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Ravens | 48c | 237.9$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Ravens | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…10ebbacked Ravens | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Ravens | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Jets | 54c | 165.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Ravens | 49c | 161$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Ravens | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Jets | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Jets | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ravens | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Ravens | 44c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Jets | 55c | 72.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Ravens | 47c | 57.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Ravens | 49c | 51.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Ravens | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Ravens | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Jets | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…30babacked Jets | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…dbe9backed Jets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Jets | 54c | 33.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Jets | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…fba2backed Jets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Jets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Jets | 54c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Jets | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jets | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Jets | 60c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Jets | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-14.5)this page
- Jets vs. RavensRavens won
- Jets vs. Ravens: 1H MoneylineJets won
- Jets vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-13.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.