NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f1c2580eb88b2e7e689d4a3e08e015c9f848251f9f9bb14973f94e4197a4ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Ravens, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Jets | 48c | 50,000$24,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,000 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Ravens | 52c | 45,000$23,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,400 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Jets | 47c | 17,527$8,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,215 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Ravens | 52c | 15,154$7,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,879.91 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Ravens | 53c | 10,521$5,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,565.71 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ravens | 53c | 10,084$5,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,344.67 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jets | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Ravens | 50c | 7,138$3,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,569 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Jets | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jets | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Ravens | 51c | 4,302$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.41 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ravens | 51c | 4,142$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.7 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Jets | 49c | 3,876$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.76 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Jets | 49c | 3,042$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.67 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Ravens | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…6ec8backed Jets | 47c | 1,101$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.34 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Jets | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.71 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Jets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Ravens | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Ravens | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Ravens | 51c | 999.99$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.66 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Jets | 48c | 991$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Jets | 50c | 802.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.42 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Ravens | 52c | 728$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.56 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ravens | 52c | 665$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Jets | 49c | 608.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.59 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jets | 48c | 553.2$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.79 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Jets | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Jets | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Jets | 45c | 468$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Jets | 47c | 429.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.06 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Jets | 48c | 420$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Ravens | 52c | 370$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ravens | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Jets | 45c | 250$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…ba65backed Jets | 47c | 240$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Jets | 48c | 237$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jets | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Jets | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Ravens | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Ravens | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Ravens | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Ravens | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Jets | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Jets | 49c | 126.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Ravens | 51c | 121.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Ravens | 51c | 121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Jets | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Jets | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…a145backed Jets | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Jets | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Ravens | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Ravens | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…a072backed Ravens | 56c | 89.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Ravens | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Jets | 48c | 77.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Ravens | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…0adebacked Jets | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Ravens | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Jets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Ravens | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Ravens | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…b26abacked Jets | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Ravens | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Ravens | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…63f1backed Ravens | 51c | 35.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Jets | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Ravens | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Ravens | 58c | 26.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jets | 53c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Jets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Jets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Jets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Jets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-13.5)this page
- Jets vs. RavensRavens won
- Jets vs. Ravens: 1H MoneylineJets won
- Jets vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-14.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.