MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf71ed3f45f3a7f40feafabd30502ad8e3cc836079b405f337666aae9d3c50c71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 5,485$3,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 4,151$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.36 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 16c | 2,654$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 1,295$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 871.94$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.58 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 823.55$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.59 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 782.45$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 660.95$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Miami Marlins | 30c | 652.83$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.85 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 552.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 515.25$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 399$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 279.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins | 11c | 265$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa2…9c82backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 251.19$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 240.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 190$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…dccabacked Miami Marlins | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 163.58$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 119.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 112.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 87.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 75.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 68.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 65.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 56.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 46.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…ec86backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 31.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 24.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.