MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93646e59f52b4274c5242cf05f8304ee5ca3eca8f669ac3f03e5574ba7a05776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 2,606$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 73c | 1,101$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.45 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Over | 63c | 952.38$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 37c | 952.38$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 671.89$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.09 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 583$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 28c | 529.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 499.55$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 39c | 400.03$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.02 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 293.12$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 158.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 36c | 122.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 36c | 122.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 38c | 99.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 42c | 96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 37c | 82.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 79.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 63c | 77.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefd…9a75backed Under | 74c | 63.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 72c | 63.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 35c | 53.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…338abacked Under | 59c | 53.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 62c | 45.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Under | 37c | 40.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 33c | 36.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 36c | 33.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…aeedbacked Under | 40c | 32.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 31.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 76c | 30.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 62c | 26.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…44bbbacked Over | 63c | 22.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 46c | 22.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 77c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…0f79backed Over | 64c | 17.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc051…5fc3backed Over | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 60c | 16.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 77c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…b74cbacked Under | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.