MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae9358da799f139d78e67f58f41933f4a929482635c0f4716660522eb247be85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 6,757$3,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.03 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 4,423$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 4,239$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 3,464$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 2c | 3,082$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 50c | 1,956$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.89 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 54c | 918.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.86 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 57c | 746.84$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.7 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 72c | 618.73$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 536.94$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Under | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 471.82$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.22 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 442.42$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 437.04$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 413.54$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Over | 33c | 399$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 28c | 388.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.65 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…3913backed Over | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 54c | 344.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.44 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 308$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 297.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 50c | 220.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 61c | 167$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 65c | 98.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Under | 51c | 77.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Over | 71c | 52.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 51c | 49.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9760…ee64backed Over | 47c | 49.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 58c | 44.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 52c | 43.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 63c | 33.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdf…ec62backed Under | 46c | 31.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 31.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 57c | 30.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…0502backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 61c | 23.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 59c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Under | 66c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.