TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Nashville SC O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,008 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa42f…b629backed Over1c1,177$12 inLost-$11.774062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.7wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Over1c1,177$12 inLost-$11.772751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under38c797.38$302 inWon+$494.881,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over63c680.87$429 inLost-$428.9527837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under38c411.76$156 inWon+$255.293,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over62c299.99$186 inLost-$185.9910358.3%60 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over62c153.6$95 inLost-$95.2373438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Over62c104.97$65 inLost-$65.086346%29 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Under62c99.2$62 inWon+$37.719847.5%94 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Over63c87.47$55 inLost-$55633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under55c82.8$46 inWon+$37.2671443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over58c73$42 inLost-$42.341,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under37c72.38$26 inWon+$45.921,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over59c38$22 inLost-$22.4236247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under41c38$16 inWon+$22.421,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over63c30.22$19 inLost-$19.0439435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44eb…48c6backed Over62c20.38$13 inLost-$12.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.