Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b10bc878c1ff9a1761a34680d2a749b3625353c07bcdc50e85af85f7b003819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 36c | 12,728$4,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,581.91 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 6,479$4,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.86 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 64c | 1,786$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.93 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 65c | 1,008$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.62 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 8c | 970.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 64c | 819.94$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.18 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 34c | 503.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 64c | 478.93$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.41 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Under | 64c | 399.98$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 35c | 333$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 64c | 266$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 64c | 256$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 64c | 212.25$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 64c | 142.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 69c | 139.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 35c | 133.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 124.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 35c | 118.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 35c | 99.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 64c | 89.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…384fbacked Over | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…e893backed Over | 36c | 52.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Under | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…31b3backed Under | 66c | 45.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked Under | 64c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Under | 66c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Nashville SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Nashville SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Nashville SC O/U 2.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.