South American Leagues · resolved market
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7b4f1deb80e508984074246694419baf19c4753029bd986c69dbeda0e646f69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 20c | 4,408$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.21 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,076$3,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.4 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 75c | 3,861$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.56 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 25c | 1,942$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.37 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 26c | 1,340$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.44 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 1,257$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.86 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 1,239$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…8d5fbacked Over | 19c | 1,184$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 17c | 1,094$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 662.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.48 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…311abacked Over | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Over | 21c | 441.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…82aabacked Over | 22c | 283$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 25c | 198$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 77c | 197$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…7387backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 124.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 18c | 105.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 15c | 96.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Over | 19c | 82.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 78c | 72.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 26c | 61.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 78c | 61.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 76c | 54.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 79c | 22.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 73c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5this page
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Santos FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Santos FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.