TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Associação Chapecoense de Futebolof Santos FC, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,426
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,426 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ad7…42aabacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol51c70,046$35,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,585.792948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d5…66d8backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol53c43,105$22,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,259.335650%28 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc1…bdd8backed Santos FC47c31,915$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0003644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Santos FC45c13,272$5,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,913.32,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Santos FC48c9,548$4,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,625.148,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Santos FC49c6,122$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0006827.9%19 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked Santos FC50c6,000$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Santos FC49c5,050$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.517055.3%94 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Santos FC49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4505,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Santos FC47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8805850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Santos FC48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44017049.4%84 W · 86 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Santos FC47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.994431.8%14 W · 30 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-34.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Santos FC47c2,808$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.684143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Santos FC49c2,772$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.2842962.2%267 W · 162 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Santos FC46c2,765$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.923040%12 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Santos FC50c2,500$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.041,28253.7%689 W · 593 L+5.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Santos FC50c2,500$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.041,23153.9%663 W · 568 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d75…3d44backed Santos FC47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9403342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol53c2,000$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.991,94451.3%998 W · 946 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef5…fc37backed Santos FC48c1,556$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.082352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Santos FC49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7352441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Santos FC47c1,233$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.2831136.7%114 W · 197 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5522259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Santos FC47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011855.1%65 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Santos FC46c1,032$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.732429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Santos FC50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006243.5%27 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Santos FC49c821.23$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.0155250.2%277 W · 275 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Santos FC6c747.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.392,17043.7%948 W · 1,222 L-53.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Santos FC48c736.27$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.091,43937.5%540 W · 899 L+4.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol52c726.63$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.691,30250.2%653 W · 649 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Santos FC49c714.28$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508746%40 W · 47 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol62c658.71$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.083,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Santos FC49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2456253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38bd…b8f3backed Santos FC46c435.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Santos FC22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885721.1%12 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Santos FC49c391.43$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1146449.6%230 W · 234 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Santos FC48c380.41$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.621044.3%93 W · 117 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Santos FC49c357$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9330754.7%168 W · 139 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol57c349.95$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.489651%49 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Santos FC48c323$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6238233%126 W · 256 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Santos FC49c316.57$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4214753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c5…2909backed Santos FC50c296.14$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.071758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Santos FC49c280.97$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1115651.9%81 W · 75 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Santos FC46c274.65$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0325345.1%114 W · 139 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Santos FC51c266$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.333852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Santos FC47c265.96$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-28.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Santos FC49c262.31$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.119054.4%49 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0c…7047backed Santos FC39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x580b…9535backed Santos FC59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Santos FC49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010146.5%47 W · 54 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3947…63a5backed Santos FC47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c31…5380backed Santos FC49c198.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.511457%65 W · 49 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Santos FC46c198.92$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol52c185.68$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.472,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Santos FC49c180.65$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1115552.3%81 W · 74 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcbb…4eb6backed Santos FC48c167$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.16450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425e…ecfabacked Santos FC40c158.36$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.932969%20 W · 9 L+7.5wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+112.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c150$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771,25356.2%704 W · 549 L+73.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed Santos FC47c141.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.312737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol52c127.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0817951.4%92 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0598…3d83backed Santos FC47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04b7…e10cbacked Santos FC46c101.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+87.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa859…48b9backed Santos FC47c100.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Santos FC48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4841654.3%226 W · 190 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Santos FC49c96.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.119860.2%59 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc047…cce5backed Santos FC47c95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.596561.5%40 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Santos FC48c89.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7414643.2%63 W · 83 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol54c78.17$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0564633.1%214 W · 432 L-24.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c77.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6270055.7%390 W · 310 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde36…f41cbacked Santos FC48c72.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol55c70.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5895155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Santos FC49c68.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7119164.4%123 W · 68 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Santos FC49c68.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6228665%186 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Santos FC54c68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4850643.9%222 W · 284 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Santos FC54c66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4489645.4%407 W · 489 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b3…e902backed Santos FC46c64.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Santos FC47c61.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.722,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Santos FC48c56.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2811858.5%69 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.567463.5%47 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol52c55.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5218247.8%87 W · 95 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5712535.2%44 W · 81 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f25…e9a5backed Santos FC49c52.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.663647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd54…b7aebacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol53c52.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.622040%8 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-29.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Santos FC49c47.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0963061.3%386 W · 244 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Santos FC51c45.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3335046.3%162 W · 188 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Santos FC49c45.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3933365.5%218 W · 115 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Santos FC49c44.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7669453.5%371 W · 323 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Santos FC49c42.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.914757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Santos FC47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040242%169 W · 233 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8041…fc83backed Santos FC45c39.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.058453.6%45 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…355abacked Santos FC50c39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Santos FC49c34.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1227855.4%154 W · 124 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee9d…29a1backed Santos FC49c32.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f2…131dbacked Santos FC50c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x927c…a79abacked Santos FC48c31.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.07837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea7…078bbacked Santos FC48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Santos FC61c31.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193129%9 W · 22 L-6.8wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-41.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7aae…7efcbacked Santos FC45c28.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2827…4ee7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol53c28.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.321827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.