South American Leagues · resolved market

Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41caa3e3f5f2385ff62ebc526efde8f6d5ef9400bed74cdb5df8ba8a87bb662c

Rebuilt 45 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $76,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,761 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under	50c	14,756$7,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,409.73	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	50c	8,185$4,064 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,120.87	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	42c	8,097$3,401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,400.66	1,290	42.8%552 W · 738 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Under	42c	7,500$3,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,149.98	316	43%136 W · 180 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7391…5375backed Over	57c	5,224$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,223.51	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	59c	4,563$2,692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,871.44	1,439	37.5%540 W · 899 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under	1c	3,589$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.89	92	7.6%7 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	54c	3,577$1,944 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,633.64	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	50c	3,371$1,677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,694.4	1,362	44.9%611 W · 751 L	-22.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	42c	1,575$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.6	1,944	51.3%998 W · 946 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	51c	1,416$717 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$698.61	752	40.8%307 W · 445 L	-17.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under	42c	1,414$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.86	194	47.9%93 W · 101 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Over	57c	1,200$684 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516	200	46%92 W · 108 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	51c	1,165$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.93	2,514	39%980 W · 1,534 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	43c	1,161$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.79	2,335	51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc652…f9b8backed Over	61c	1,120$683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	49c	1,101$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$561.34	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8944…da4bbacked Under	55c	1,055$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.6	109	33%36 W · 73 L	-7.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	58c	871.48$504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.87	1,302	50.2%653 W · 649 L	-13.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	58c	688.1$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289	1,231	53.9%663 W · 568 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	58c	613.97$356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.87	1,282	53.7%689 W · 593 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	55c	609.24$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.08	311	36.7%114 W · 197 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over	51c	579.51$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$284.4	464	49.6%230 W · 234 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	58c	554$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.68	491	36.3%178 W · 313 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e0b…f166backed Over	59c	508.47$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.47	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-35%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d75…3d44backed Under	50c	506.15$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.07	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f39…311abacked Over	48c	499.98$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.99	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over	51c	400$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198	268	35.1%94 W · 174 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Over	46c	400$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217	186	31.2%58 W · 128 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Over	53c	350.68$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.57	552	50.2%277 W · 275 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Over	57c	277.56$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.35	71	56.3%40 W · 31 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Over	58c	274$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.08	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2476…7eeebacked Over	75c	266.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	51	64.7%33 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	70cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Over	59c	245.76$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.76	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+3.4wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Under	43c	240.32$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.54	253	45.1%114 W · 139 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	46c	200.94$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.81	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Over	58c	175.5$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.71	95	51.6%49 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Under	54c	168.58$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.03	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c31…5380backed Over	59c	165.76$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.96	114	57%65 W · 49 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Over	50c	137.55$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.52	155	52.3%81 W · 74 L	+9.7wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Over	55c	133.13$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.08	147	53.7%79 W · 68 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	43c	111$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.73	217	52.1%113 W · 104 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4962…f509backed Over	57c	111$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.73	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c8…023abacked Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd629…1e72backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	131	67.9%89 W · 42 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	70cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Over	59c	97.95$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.68	646	33.1%214 W · 432 L	-24.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over	55c	95.92$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.03	951	55.8%531 W · 420 L	+31.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	23c	94.92$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	898	46.1%414 W · 484 L	-11.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Under	44c	92.86$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.86	155	54.2%84 W · 71 L	+9.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	50c	88.17$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.09	1,443	45.9%662 W · 781 L	-22.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Over	41c	84.77$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	28	85.7%24 W · 4 L	+10.6wins	+0.38per pick	48cpaid	+139.3%equal weight	72+0.20 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	13c	81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	1,038	49.4%513 W · 525 L	+14.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over	50c	77.28$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.64	150	41.3%62 W · 88 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	58c	70.6$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.65	179	51.4%92 W · 87 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Under	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	138	50%69 W · 69 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ce…15febacked Over	58c	68.97$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.97	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79d…0289backed Over	74c	67.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.21	74	67.6%50 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	70cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over	57c	59$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.37	382	33%126 W · 256 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	58c	51.95$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.94	2,611	54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L	+25.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over	50c	50.53$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.1	694	53.5%371 W · 323 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	519	45.7%237 W · 282 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	485	47.6%231 W · 254 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9786…1e9abacked Over	46c	48.23$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.11	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc482…f0bebacked Over	52c	48.05$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.05	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Over	58c	41$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.22	88	55.7%49 W · 39 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0a2…b58ebacked Over	50c	37.06$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.53	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked Over	59c	35$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.35	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1101…dfd5backed Under	42c	34.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12b3…e902backed Over	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x147c…2540backed Under	43c	30.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-5.2wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Under	42c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-7.4wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under	42c	29.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	146	43.2%63 W · 83 L	-9.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fac…6b9ebacked Under	65c	27.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed Over	58c	27.58$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.59	182	47.8%87 W · 95 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28b1…dc74backed Over	50c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Under	51c	25.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under	43c	25.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	452	53.1%240 W · 212 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a4…9950backed Over	59c	23.03$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.44	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over	50c	22.9$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	630	61.3%386 W · 244 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc73a…ba42backed Over	56c	18.66$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.21	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-40%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over	58c	18.47$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.79	232	53%123 W · 109 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5this page
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 5.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Santos FC O/U 0.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Santos FC O/U 1.5Over won
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)Santos FC won
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event