TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,459

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,601 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under19c4,783$917 inLost-$917.462,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under16c4,652$744 inLost-$744.3517055.3%94 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Under3c2,941$98 inLost-$98.3214530.3%44 W · 101 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under18c2,700$486 inLost-$4861,94451.3%998 W · 946 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under17c2,500$425 inLost-$4251,28253.7%689 W · 593 L+5.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under17c2,500$425 inLost-$4251,23153.9%663 W · 568 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under16c2,140$342 inLost-$342.383240.6%13 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-32.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under17c2,000$345 inLost-$34519447.9%93 W · 101 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under24c1,801$434 inLost-$434.042,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0160…c757backed Under3c1,793$46 inLost-$45.86137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+669.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over76c1,479$1,117 inWon+$361.575,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a05…0dc0backed Under1c1,385$16 inLost-$16.46339.7%25 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under16c1,250$200 inLost-$20030754.7%168 W · 139 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00fd…32a0backed Under4c1,250$50 inLost-$503040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under17c1,135$193 inLost-$192.9557540.2%231 W · 344 L+2.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Under17c1,000$165 inLost-$1656253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under3c1,000$30 inLost-$30137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+370.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Under7c645.99$45 inLost-$45.228444%37 W · 47 L+11.9wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+23.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Under16c625$100 inLost-$10010146.5%47 W · 54 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Under3c515$15 inLost-$15.4530048%144 W · 156 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b9…c40bbacked Under9c502.42$45 inLost-$45.2260%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under17c459.85$78 inLost-$78.1751750.7%262 W · 255 L+28.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under16c410.95$66 inLost-$65.7527855.4%154 W · 124 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0145…35d0backed Over68c294.12$200 inWon+$94.123076.7%23 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Under18c216.04$39 inLost-$38.8964633.1%214 W · 432 L-24.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbafd…4898backed Under10c200$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over76c176.34$134 inWon+$42.3146449.6%230 W · 234 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over79c172.26$136 inWon+$36.1720055%110 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under18c159$28 inLost-$27.882,17043.7%948 W · 1,222 L-53.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under18c128$23 inLost-$23.0417951.4%92 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under18c119.6$21 inLost-$20.9340451.2%207 W · 197 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Under19c77.13$15 inLost-$14.814753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over80c69.5$56 inWon+$13.928665%186 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over71c63.8$46 inWon+$18.281,44345.9%662 W · 781 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Over76c58.35$44 inWon+$14.0315552.3%81 W · 74 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe16f…a33fbacked Over70c28.57$20 inWon+$8.573959%23 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8041…fc83backed Over79c19.99$16 inWon+$4.28453.6%45 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over79c15.83$13 inWon+$3.3233658.3%196 W · 140 L+32.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.