South American Leagues · resolved market

Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27443c70e70e9363cf53d79fd1bbcc216a079900691383d094e39f5acc995dae

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,734 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ec5…fd53backed Over	57c	6,711$3,820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,891.18	200	36.5%73 W · 127 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	53c	5,491$2,919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,918.87	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under	1c	3,589$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.89	92	7.6%7 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	44c	2,745$1,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,220.04	2,514	39%980 W · 1,534 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Over	73c	2,580$1,883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$696.56	104	46.2%48 W · 56 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	43c	2,322$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.6	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…f983backed Under	27c	1,852$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	110	25.5%28 W · 82 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	28c	1,533$433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,100.47	752	40.8%307 W · 445 L	-17.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0598…3d83backed Over	64c	1,245$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.42	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.3wins	-0.21per pick	52cpaid	-46%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x35f1…e67bbacked Over	39c	1,018$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$618.18	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.59per pick	41cpaid	+146.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over	59c	992.67$586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.99	163	49.1%80 W · 83 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	50c	695.01$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.01	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f6…73fabacked Over	63c	684.42$433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.15	56	60.7%34 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	65cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41a…0a9bbacked Over	74c	613.43$456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.04	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d17…5297backed Over	24c	523.13$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$397.58	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.76per pick	24cpaid	+316.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb89…82aabacked Under	60c	522.13$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.08	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under	46c	510.26$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.72	221	45.7%101 W · 120 L	+10.2wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f39…311abacked Over	20c	500$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x275c…349cbacked Under	18c	416.59$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.44	99	20.2%20 W · 79 L	-8.6wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4e0…7387backed Under	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc046…d8f0backed Under	27c	363.75$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.15	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Under	55c	308.57$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.94	147	53.7%79 W · 68 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	123	38.2%47 W · 76 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce20…fa07backed Under	67c	286.57$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	19c	282.01$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.43	1,537	45.2%695 W · 842 L	+21.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b18…577ebacked Under	18c	274.88$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.52	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8944…da4bbacked Under	51c	266.48$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.37	109	33%36 W · 73 L	-7.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	52c	241.19$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.34	951	55.8%531 W · 420 L	+31.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	19c	238.17$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.23	1,038	49.4%513 W · 525 L	+14.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x101c…0e79backed Over	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b2…1c44backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Under	49c	191.33$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.75	210	44.3%93 W · 117 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	33c	190.01$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.31	1,944	51.3%998 W · 946 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa9…09fabacked Under	15c	181.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.15	106	35.8%38 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+106.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under	62c	173.82$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.77	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	61c	165$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.65	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Under	26c	157.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	+8.2wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	-4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c36…4da4backed Under	17c	133.76$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under	51c	131.27$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.73	464	49.6%230 W · 234 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under	77c	129.31$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.31	552	50.2%277 W · 275 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	56c	121.85$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.65	2,170	43.7%948 W · 1,222 L	-53.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e4…3876backed Under	65c	115.38$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+52.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	42c	112$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.96	1,328	57%757 W · 571 L	+57.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	34c	110.05$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.44	2,611	54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L	+25.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	35c	109.86$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.45	311	36.7%114 W · 197 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b3…bf2ebacked Under	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over	68c	102.94$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.94	769	51.5%396 W · 373 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	39c	99.19$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.09	1,253	56.2%704 W · 549 L	+73.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe16f…a33fbacked Over	69c	93.64$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	39	59%23 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over	51c	72.55$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.55	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	46c	67.74$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.25	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over	39c	67.01$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.63	268	35.1%94 W · 174 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…fc6dbacked Under	33c	60.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over	35c	59.8$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.87	404	51.2%207 W · 197 L	-13.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	35c	52.47$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.1	1,439	37.5%540 W · 899 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3b…8f52backed Under	78c	50.32$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	47	31.9%15 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Under	22c	49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	352	46.9%165 W · 187 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc482…f0bebacked Over	65c	46.15$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.15	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over	49c	45$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.95	251	47.8%120 W · 131 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0b…2500backed Over	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	156	25.6%40 W · 116 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	48c	41.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	630	61.3%386 W · 244 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed Under	66c	37.88$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Under	50c	35.84$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.89	155	52.3%81 W · 74 L	+9.7wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	72c	32.28$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.24	217	52.1%113 W · 104 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Under	77c	30$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under	65c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	232	53%123 W · 109 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbb…3ed1backed Over	39c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.3	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8cd…ed53backed Under	76c	28.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.49	83	75.9%63 W · 20 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	65c	25.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	1,443	45.9%662 W · 781 L	-22.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4db…e401backed Under	42c	23.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-4.1wins	-0.32per pick	55cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Under	58c	23.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	191	64.4%123 W · 68 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8770…ff96backed Over	52c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf20…1881backed Under	58c	20.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.18per pick	49cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f25…e9a5backed Under	78c	17.54$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x978c…d1e6backed Under	62c	16.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5this page
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 5.5Under won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Santos FC O/U 0.5Over won
Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Santos FC O/U 1.5Over won
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)Santos FC won
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event