Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d38eb5d1798ec7d00770b047ae7026924a463c7de72e42d0dffff501531c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 25c | 2,002$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.49 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 567.19$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 487.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 28c | 392.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 17c | 341.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 249.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 31c | 233.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 13c | 191.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 176.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 141.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 140.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 10c | 134.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 133.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 15c | 131.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 24c | 128.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 128$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 109.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 19c | 107.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 104.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 102$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 100.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 98.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 11c | 97.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 95.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 94.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 75c | 81.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 75.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 73.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 21c | 63.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 60.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 56.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 55.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 80c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…6941backed Yes | 28c | 51.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 48.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 76c | 47.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 27c | 44.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 77c | 44.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 37.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 70c | 35.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 33.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 31.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 78c | 27.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…d76ebacked No | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…8c5bbacked No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 80c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 76c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.