Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680f9caac522330df2d1aa41711392d97ffe926f4804d34a4d1d6e39ff86bd90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,089$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 426.08$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 26c | 355.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 27c | 348.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 276.06$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 185.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 182.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 178$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 61c | 131.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 33c | 125.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 39c | 119.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 29c | 112.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 76c | 109.76$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 72c | 108.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 108.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 101.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…5c08backed Yes | 31c | 100.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 95.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…2ebebacked Yes | 23c | 93.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 91.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 90.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 89.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 35c | 85.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 84.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 76.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 76.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 40c | 75.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 72.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 69.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 68.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 20c | 62.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 31c | 62.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 33c | 59.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 58.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 35c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 26c | 56.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 55.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 34c | 51.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…388cbacked No | 73c | 51.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 80c | 51.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…67c5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 47.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 46.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 26c | 45.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 43.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 36.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 34c | 34.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 34.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 77c | 30.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1352backed No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…fdd9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 77c | 23.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 21.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 20.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.