TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,576
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,576 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes4c1,089$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c426.08$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.764,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes26c355.41$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4117025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes27c348.43$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1131043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c276.06$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes8c250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes30c185.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes38c182.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c178$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.875,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No61c131.03$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.147866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes33c125.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.611,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes39c119.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.794940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes29c112.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No76c109.76$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5710966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No72c108.34$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6419648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No69c108.16$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.941,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No74c101.3$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.831,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4da0…5c08backed Yes31c100.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c95.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.933,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2722…2ebebacked Yes23c93.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c91.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No74c90.44$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.583,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes31c90$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes25c89.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4187629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes35c85.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c84.2$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.275,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes26c76.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7860523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c76.24$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed Yes40c75.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c72.26$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.522,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfab…602dbacked Yes39c72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.434337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c69.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c68.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.782,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No68c65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes20c62.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes31c62.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2715328.1%43 W · 110 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes33c59.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7913738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c58.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.113,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67e…8929backed Yes35c58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.544129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes26c56.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5417144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No69c55.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.181,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes38c52.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…fe00backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes34c51.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2760519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9301…388cbacked No73c51.11$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82070%14 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed No80c51.09$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.320341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b0…67c5backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.219662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No70c47.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.351,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No65c46.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes26c45.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.917241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No73c43.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.942,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes39c43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8112832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes24c41.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.440535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes28c37.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes31c36.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes34c34.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No66c34.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7965965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes31c34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.65543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c32.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No61c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.484,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No66c30.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.482,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91c0…d4dabacked No77c30.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.945381.1%43 W · 10 L+8.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29e…1352backed No80c25.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.061668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.651,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x125a…fdd9backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick77cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9541…33b5backed No77c23.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.286269.4%43 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c21.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.581,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No64c21.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6571464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No69c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No68c20.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No75c20.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.144567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No75c20.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0828866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.852,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.012,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No67c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.862,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No72c15.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.171,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.152,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.