Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc504bf480c67a3fe66d5204161c9a7e0aa70b05fcfa01d62f373005570a9ead1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80c7…2a67backed No | 1c | 1,646$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 58c | 667.5$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.74 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 77c | 499.98$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.98 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 434.62$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 43c | 412.1$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.09 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 74c | 370.64$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 326.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.09 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…8bd5backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 279.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 248.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 47c | 233$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…5e85backed Yes | 44c | 232$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…6946backed Yes | 44c | 232$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 218.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 192.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 190$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 185.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 55c | 184.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 158$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 152.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 148.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 41c | 145.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 145.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 140.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 43c | 136.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 37c | 134.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 126.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 43c | 125.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 26c | 123.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 44c | 123$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 54c | 121.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 45c | 121.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 120.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 115.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 42c | 108$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 107.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 107.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 22c | 103.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b2…0653backed Yes | 46c | 103.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 102.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 52c | 99.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 96.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 95.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…1851backed Yes | 46c | 93.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 91.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 90.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 44c | 89.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 35c | 88.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 23c | 85.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 84.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 77.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 46c | 76.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…2f9cbacked No | 63c | 75.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 52c | 73.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 71.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 58.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 55.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 55.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 54.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 74c | 53.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 52.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…a64abacked Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…945ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed Yes | 44c | 46.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 76c | 44.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 44.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 41.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 49c | 40.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 39.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…21f6backed No | 63c | 38.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…9cd8backed Yes | 39c | 36.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 47c | 35.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked No | 68c | 35.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 35.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 59c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes | 48c | 30.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 30.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.