Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d845dc4da7c885c8e1a1df05525260c1365766c5d9456a628ca2963e360e2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,580 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 918.98$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 564$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 550.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 58c | 415.23$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 407.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 392.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 19c | 389.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 67c | 378.71$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes | 16c | 360$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 313.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 34c | 267.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 57c | 260.14$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.85 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 243.41$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 39c | 232.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 232.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 68c | 224.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 57c | 212.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 22c | 207.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 26c | 197.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 40c | 185.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 52c | 165.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 62c | 160.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 42c | 160.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 73c | 142.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 37c | 131.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 48c | 124.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 13c | 123.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 58c | 121.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 116.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 72c | 97.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 93.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 93.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 25c | 90.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 89.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 57c | 87.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 37c | 84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 75.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 71.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 56c | 70.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 68.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 67c | 66.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 44c | 65.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 21c | 63.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 52c | 63.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 64c | 62.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 61.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 58.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 55.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 68c | 51.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…faa1backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 22c | 49.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 49.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 47.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 58c | 46.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 59c | 45.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 40c | 45.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 31c | 41.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 39c | 39.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 57c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 34c | 35.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35f…9f10backed No | 67c | 34.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 64c | 34.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 33.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d138backed Yes | 37c | 32.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 30.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 38c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 27.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 61c | 25.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 63c | 21.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 63c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…6931backed No | 60c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 62c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…0b0fbacked No | 77c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 77c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 60°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.