Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c3b3caebe0142a691edecd4bb3209e71a06c583ed8199cc00a46ddd1801eb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,318 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 68c | 2,736$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.15 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 919$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 53c | 664.28$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.64 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 582.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 40c | 521.27$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.79 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 40c | 497.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 70c | 460.82$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.94 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 64c | 356.69$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.91 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 39c | 354.7$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 352.42$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 335.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 19c | 329.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 297.93$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 46c | 293.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 289.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.71 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 241.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 43c | 222.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 66c | 198.55$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 56c | 194.19$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 190.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 184.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 42c | 131.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 121.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 110.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked Yes | 59c | 105.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 105.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 56c | 95.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 37c | 93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 59c | 92.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 56c | 92.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 50c | 83.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 83.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 79.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 54c | 79.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked Yes | 79c | 77.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 76.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 37c | 73.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 42c | 70.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 57.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 32c | 55.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 60c | 55.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 51.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…a9c9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…661ebacked No | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 46c | 48.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 42c | 47.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked No | 62c | 46.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 45.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 44.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 34c | 44.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Yes | 36c | 42.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 40.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 70c | 39.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 40c | 37.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 49c | 36.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 40c | 34.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 34.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 70c | 34.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 30c | 34.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 64c | 32.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 31.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked No | 65c | 31.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…1a02backed Yes | 39c | 31.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 33c | 30.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…1eedbacked No | 64c | 30.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb056…cbe1backed No | 62c | 30.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 65c | 29.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 62c | 27.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 64c | 23.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 60°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.