Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a991163f51ecfe30745ecea8d65934c7ac063c64d3287cb6b0c79a3d2396a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 52c | 2,282$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.7 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 737.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 52c | 480.27$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.27 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 423.8$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 391.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 364.38$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 357.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 47c | 319$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 317$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.62 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 307.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 302.66$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 264$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 48c | 244.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 238.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 20c | 229.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 227.55$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 210.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 60c | 190.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 46c | 186.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 176.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 176.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 169$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 42c | 151.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 142.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 78c | 136.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 129.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 52c | 123.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 35c | 123.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 54c | 116.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 112.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 47c | 112.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 52c | 108.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 108.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 35c | 103.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 65c | 98.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 93.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 93.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 87.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 86.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 83.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 15c | 80.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 78.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 49c | 73.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 30c | 71.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 50c | 65.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 34c | 63.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 62.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 78c | 58.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 44c | 58.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 53.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 52.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 53c | 52.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 50.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 49.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 49.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 45.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 44.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 58c | 44.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 25c | 43.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 41.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 40.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 46c | 38.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 52c | 36.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 56c | 36.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 57c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 39c | 33.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 61c | 33.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 32.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.