Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x728d1fdfdf27753c4c799d64f059ea6363c419e22aa933ac79a3bc6938e79ed5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 1,307$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,197$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.31 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 703.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 499.63$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 432.19$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 39c | 414.65$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 384.81$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 307.9$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 276$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 11c | 270.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 248.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 48c | 244.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 219.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 201.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 197.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 167.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 165$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 146.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 13c | 134.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 133.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 128.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 128.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 33c | 126.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 39c | 122.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 71c | 120.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Yes | 40c | 119.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 117.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 110.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…9c4cbacked Yes | 42c | 99.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 98.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 93.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 92.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 58c | 90.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 48c | 84.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 84.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 64c | 82.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 81.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 80.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 14c | 78.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 32c | 74.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 39c | 72.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 72.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 23c | 70.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 57c | 69.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 30c | 66.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 38c | 66.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 38c | 64.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 64.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 26c | 64.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 40c | 61.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 58.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 46c | 57.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 39c | 56.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 54.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 64c | 54.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 29c | 54.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 53.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 26c | 52.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 41c | 52.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 51.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked Yes | 37c | 51.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 51.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…eac3backed No | 51c | 50.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 50.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 45.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 39c | 41.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 40.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 40.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 39.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 39.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 34c | 37.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 34.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.