Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Karolina Muchova vs Magda Linette
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8f7602ea0ffc631d48629e9df7c04bdec9f7395a9d4849db18559e76797bab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Muchova, Linette
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Linette | 19c | 22,609$4,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,195.64 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Linette | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Linette | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Linette | 7c | 3,360$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.58 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Linette | 18c | 2,090$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.59 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Linette | 11c | 1,702$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.92 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Linette | 19c | 1,246$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Linette | 7c | 1,186$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Linette | 3c | 1,005$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Linette | 15c | 880$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Linette | 19c | 867.89$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.9 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Linette | 18c | 750$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Linette | 20c | 709$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…e717backed Linette | 13c | 621.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Linette | 22c | 516$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Linette | 19c | 478.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c0…8ea1backed Linette | 20c | 402.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…841dbacked Linette | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Linette | 13c | 377$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Linette | 19c | 350$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Muchova | 78c | 330$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Linette | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…8b6cbacked Linette | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Muchova | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Linette | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Linette | 19c | 131.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Linette | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Linette | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe563…0cf5backed Linette | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Linette | 19c | 74.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Linette | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Muchova | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Linette | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Linette | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Muchova | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…0a08backed Muchova | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 77cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Muchova | 80c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 242 | 74%179 W · 63 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Muchova | 79c | 12.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…2d3abacked Muchova | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Karolina Muchova vs Magda Linettethis page
- Muchova vs. Linette: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Muchova vs. Linette: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Muchova vs. Linette: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs LinetteMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Linette (+1.5)Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.