Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf916d12d54642cec7efcc1531f02a6d1994039c6b2609577372ac4b424facc4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 24c | 3,976$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.61 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 74c | 2,782$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.96 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 25c | 1,830$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked No | 36c | 1,078$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…6a93backed Yes | 64c | 779.56$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +60%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 19c | 686.11$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 16c | 651.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 18c | 585.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 67c | 499.98$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 32c | 490.41$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.93 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked No | 32c | 466.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 32c | 440.32$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 75c | 395.95$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 19c | 355.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 31c | 332.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Yes | 69c | 284.9$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 68c | 273.87$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed No | 32c | 237.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 65c | 192$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 32c | 190.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 66c | 185.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 65c | 184.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Yes | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 34c | 139.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 33c | 124.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 31c | 122.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 32c | 121.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x311f…2aebbacked No | 32c | 119.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 32c | 114.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 33c | 95.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 68c | 89.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed No | 22c | 88.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 33c | 87.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 68c | 86.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 69c | 85.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 32c | 83.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed Yes | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 68c | 71.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 24c | 65.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Yes | 68c | 64.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 68c | 64.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…04fbbacked No | 23c | 61.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 68c | 56.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 68c | 39.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 33c | 35.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 69c | 33.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 69c | 33.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 33c | 32.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 68c | 31.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…2193backed Yes | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed Yes | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 77c | 26.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 67c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Yes | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 77c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Yes | 77c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes | 76c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-17?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-04-17?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.