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NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Clippers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Clippersof Clippers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,210 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8b3…6b95backed Clippers52c1,602$826 inWon+$776.422166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Raptors55c909.21$500 inLost-$50040344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Raptors49c505$247 inLost-$247.452,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Raptors46c461.28$212 inLost-$212.1979650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Clippers45c438$197 inWon+$240.94,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors50c173.44$87 inLost-$86.725,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors49c148.68$73 inLost-$72.852,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e3…c767backed Clippers53c49.62$26 inWon+$23.3211553%61 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9dc…038ebacked Raptors54c37.04$20 inLost-$206550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Clippers50c33$17 inWon+$16.524147.7%115 W · 126 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Clippers45c29.52$13 inWon+$16.241,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Clippers46c24.39$11 inWon+$13.1790357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.