CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf946c0a935211fe41b00c1d607d5f385e537e558f90850d98b39d745a8103328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1WINof 1WIN, Eternal Fire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed 1WIN | 69c | 8,653$5,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.72 | 1,431 | 39%558 W · 873 L | -41.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Eternal Fire | 30c | 7,370$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.18 | 1,110 | 54.2%602 W · 508 L | +38.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked 1WIN | 77c | 4,964$3,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.18 | 453 | 57.2%259 W · 194 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Eternal Fire | 44c | 3,484$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.37 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Eternal Fire | 12c | 2,823$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.75 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…bf58backed 1WIN | 43c | 1,933$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.52 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Eternal Fire | 25c | 1,228$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.36 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Eternal Fire | 32c | 1,036$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.85 | 1,325 | 44.1%584 W · 741 L | +44.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked 1WIN | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked 1WIN | 46c | 1,000$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.27 | 949 | 45.8%435 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Eternal Fire | 47c | 1,000$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.47 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 1WIN | 68c | 918.94$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.15 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Eternal Fire | 30c | 800.02$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Eternal Fire | 16c | 760.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 1,121 | 42.5%476 W · 645 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Eternal Fire | 24c | 723.8$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Eternal Fire | 43c | 713.82$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.29 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Eternal Fire | 23c | 682.57$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 432 | 53%229 W · 203 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Eternal Fire | 31c | 602.87$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Eternal Fire | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Eternal Fire | 27c | 377.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 742 | 39.1%290 W · 452 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Eternal Fire | 44c | 347$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Eternal Fire | 49c | 300.84$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…625abacked Eternal Fire | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 231 | 29%67 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…c3a8backed 1WIN | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 319 | 73.7%235 W · 84 L | +23.6wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Eternal Fire | 43c | 252.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…2ef7backed 1WIN | 74c | 249.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 182 | 59.9%109 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed 1WIN | 61c | 248.62$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Eternal Fire | 27c | 206.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Eternal Fire | 16c | 178.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2,645 | 51.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L | +21.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Eternal Fire | 44c | 144.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed 1WIN | 70c | 136.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 2,365 | 45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L | -58.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…0c26backed 1WIN | 50c | 133.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Eternal Fire | 44c | 115.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Eternal Fire | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 562 | 39.5%222 W · 340 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed 1WIN | 56c | 108.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed 1WIN | 67c | 107.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 428 | 54.9%235 W · 193 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Eternal Fire | 53c | 107.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed 1WIN | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 375 | 49.1%184 W · 191 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Eternal Fire | 44c | 101$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | -17.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…6003backed Eternal Fire | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked 1WIN | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 220 | 37.3%82 W · 138 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Eternal Fire | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Eternal Fire | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Eternal Fire | 25c | 74.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed 1WIN | 51c | 72.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 265 | 44.2%117 W · 148 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…e53bbacked Eternal Fire | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Eternal Fire | 17c | 71.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Eternal Fire | 50c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…98f9backed Eternal Fire | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed 1WIN | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Eternal Fire | 44c | 55.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 241 | 52.3%126 W · 115 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…6f23backed 1WIN | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked 1WIN | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…a8d8backed Eternal Fire | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 406 | 66.3%269 W · 137 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked 1WIN | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 419 | 50.1%210 W · 209 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed 1WIN | 47c | 49.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Eternal Fire | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked 1WIN | 53c | 47.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked 1WIN | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 531 | 35%186 W · 345 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed03…1caabacked Eternal Fire | 47c | 43.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Eternal Fire | 43c | 43.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 368 | 56.8%209 W · 159 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…088fbacked Eternal Fire | 29c | 41.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked 1WIN | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 334 | 62.9%210 W · 124 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked 1WIN | 58c | 39.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked Eternal Fire | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 446 | 41.3%184 W · 262 L | -28.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Eternal Fire | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked 1WIN | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Eternal Fire | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed 1WIN | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…6e10backed 1WIN | 61c | 25.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 188 | 71.8%135 W · 53 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked 1WIN | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,890 | 41.9%791 W · 1,099 L | -71.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked 1WIN | 54c | 23.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed 1WIN | 61c | 22.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…eb3abacked 1WIN | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 252 | 50.4%127 W · 125 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bf…24b9backed 1WIN | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked 1WIN | 80c | 16.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked 1WIN | 77c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed 1WIN | 76c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 245 | 58%142 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - European Pro League Series 8 PlayoffsEternal Fire won
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire won
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 3 Winner1WIN won
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 4 WinnerEternal Fire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.