Tennis · resolved market
Tigre 2: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Lautaro Midon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf973ef31c51389ca1885914fb36b6436dbe40e8f1ab8ba7456e967938dab9938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Varillasof Varillas, Midon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Midon | 20c | 4,882$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.66 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Midon | 28c | 2,108$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.56 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Varillas | 72c | 2,093$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.78 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Midon | 50c | 1,350$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.83 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Varillas | 56c | 1,198$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.6 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Midon | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Varillas | 65c | 845.94$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.81 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Midon | 48c | 595.94$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.44 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Varillas | 49c | 500$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Midon | 31c | 407.47$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Midon | 25c | 405$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Varillas | 67c | 350.01$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Varillas | 53c | 324.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Midon | 49c | 312$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.09 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Varillas | 66c | 310.04$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Varillas | 51c | 308$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.68 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9f0abacked Varillas | 51c | 304.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Midon | 48c | 287.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Midon | 47c | 281.8$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Varillas | 52c | 280$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Varillas | 74c | 265.15$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Varillas | 51c | 242$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Varillas | 63c | 201.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Varillas | 51c | 186$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Varillas | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…f0f0backed Varillas | 57c | 176.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Varillas | 52c | 173.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1b…18bfbacked Midon | 38c | 161.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Varillas | 75c | 156.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Varillas | 53c | 150.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Varillas | 62c | 135.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…1c75backed Varillas | 75c | 134.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 73 | 74%54 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Midon | 49c | 128.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Varillas | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…0df7backed Varillas | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Varillas | 52c | 115.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…8b73backed Varillas | 53c | 113.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Varillas | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ba…1ae8backed Varillas | 50c | 109$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Midon | 49c | 101.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Varillas | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Varillas | 75c | 97.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Midon | 26c | 95.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Varillas | 50c | 92.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…d934backed Varillas | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Varillas | 52c | 61.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked Midon | 33c | 60.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Varillas | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 368 | 39.1%144 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Varillas | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Varillas | 50c | 50.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Varillas | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Midon | 34c | 44.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Varillas | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Midon | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Varillas | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed Midon | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Midon | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 39%57 W · 89 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Varillas | 52c | 29.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Varillas | 76c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Varillas | 60c | 27.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 341 | 49.9%170 W · 171 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…e2a2backed Varillas | 53c | 25.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 197 | 62.9%124 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…0282backed Midon | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…f128backed Midon | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0b…04acbacked Midon | 48c | 22.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Varillas | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…9588backed Varillas | 53c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Varillas | 67c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Varillas | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Varillas | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Varillas | 71c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Varillas | 77c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.