Tennis · resolved market
ATP Cincinnati - Mannarino vs. Paul
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf97994d7c4ae2a069738a267bbc0598480936d4aace758b7e7eadac864b4c326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Mannarino, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Mannarino | 32c | 52,330$16,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,584.4 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Paul | 68c | 38,706$26,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,319.95 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Mannarino | 28c | 21,059$5,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,095.73 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Paul | 72c | 20,540$14,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,715.79 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Paul | 65c | 12,622$8,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,168.49 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Mannarino | 38c | 7,034$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,383.24 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Paul | 44c | 5,850$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.62 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Paul | 21c | 4,913$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.44 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Paul | 73c | 1,592$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.88 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Paul | 43c | 1,416$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.13 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Mannarino | 34c | 1,387$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.28 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Mannarino | 29c | 1,062$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.33 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Paul | 74c | 999.97$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.98 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Paul | 76c | 956$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.56 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dae…c996backed Mannarino | 29c | 750.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Paul | 63c | 715.24$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.07 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Paul | 74c | 699.96$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.97 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Paul | 73c | 680$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.4 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mannarino | 30c | 600$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.69 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Mannarino | 25c | 600$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Mannarino | 27c | 586$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.78 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Paul | 75c | 570$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Paul | 54c | 568.64$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Paul | 75c | 550$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Paul | 70c | 547.69$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.1 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Paul | 69c | 527$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.17 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Paul | 73c | 500.26$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.07 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Paul | 77c | 473$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.21 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Mannarino | 23c | 435$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.95 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Paul | 78c | 410.78$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.41 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mannarino | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mannarino | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Paul | 71c | 359.19$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.88 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Mannarino | 42c | 355.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.35 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Paul | 61c | 349.7$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.32 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Paul | 67c | 329.49$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.79 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Mannarino | 24c | 303.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.66 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Paul | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Paul | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Mannarino | 35c | 286.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.65 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…5279backed Paul | 73c | 258.88$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.23 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mannarino | 22c | 245.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.71 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mannarino | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Paul | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mannarino | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mannarino | 27c | 150$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Paul | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Mannarino | 25c | 130$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +62%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…a7d4backed Paul | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Mannarino | 29c | 103.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b890backed Paul | 74c | 100.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Paul | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Mannarino | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Mannarino | 22c | 93.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…e5c1backed Mannarino | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mannarino | 23c | 77.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Paul | 75c | 67.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Mannarino | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Mannarino | 26c | 61.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…c05fbacked Paul | 76c | 60.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…5314backed Mannarino | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Mannarino | 24c | 52.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Mannarino | 26c | 51.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked Paul | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Paul | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Paul | 72c | 28.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Paul | 56c | 26.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Paul | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…994fbacked Paul | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.