MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf97fd63f1394a4bae4b5b69fd4119aa1b2376be09bb5826ebd0bd05138b18247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 9,400$5,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,498.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 9,156$3,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,401.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 1,608$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 1,504$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 1,498$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 666.53$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.53 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 609.88$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 557.98$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 408.93$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 358.57$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 350$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…9dcdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 230.26$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 192.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 153$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 147.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Baltimore Orioles | 9c | 145.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 125.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 125.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 119.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 92.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 46.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 37.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 34.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 17.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.