MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5f905d2902908ca1d1b7d9ab6b00298f8312bad0f9ef47099831a840f66448a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 58c | 14,423$8,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,057.75 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 14,352$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,250.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…9cf9backed Under | 3c | 9,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 3c | 9,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 74c | 5,633$4,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,145.41 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 3,484$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 2,155$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 42c | 1,732$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.44 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 1,308$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 35c | 1,094$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.58 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…43c8backed Over | 67c | 900$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 775.1$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.54 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 735.86$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde3c…6ea6backed Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 28c | 466.54$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 439.93$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 42c | 364.68$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 72c | 336$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 70c | 269$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 75c | 236.96$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.62 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 170.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 165$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 53c | 164.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 48c | 158.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 53c | 156$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 63c | 149.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 57c | 123.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 30c | 101.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 24c | 100.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 63c | 83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 42c | 77.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 52c | 71.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…5c85backed Over | 70c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 63.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 71c | 62.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 52c | 56.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 79c | 55.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 51.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…97cebacked Over | 31c | 43.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +223.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 69c | 42.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c64…cb99backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 58c | 32.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 56c | 32.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Over | 33c | 31.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 55c | 31.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 44c | 30.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 42c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Over | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 22.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 61c | 21.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 54c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 58c | 19.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 18.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.