MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402db4fa11fc67088be142d4699d142a94357ca94d4dee92652793d6e57c2075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 23c | 1,763$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.97 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 806.31$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…31debacked Over | 32c | 614.69$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 417.55$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 251.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 16c | 214.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 173.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 6c | 171.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 56c | 124.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 59c | 89.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 40c | 88.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 69c | 80.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 40c | 73.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Over | 48c | 71.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 22c | 69.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 58c | 69.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 36c | 61.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Under | 58c | 61.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 59.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 62c | 53.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 79c | 47.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 68c | 35.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 59c | 19.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 57c | 17.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.