MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6c50308715d4c8041ba811f1feb8e69ef4b5a9ef613ebf7dc901c15d27a458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 28,623$17,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,699.32 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 20,767$7,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,477.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 4,416$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 2,536$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.32 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…fcf7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 2,442$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 1,721$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.27 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 1,177$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 1,089$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 915$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.55 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 878.64$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.82 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 559$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 534$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 519.69$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 420$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 338.86$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.37 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 291.25$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.09 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 17c | 206.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 178$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 167.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 159.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 133$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 121.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 84.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 77.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 60.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 57.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…5449backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 53.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 45.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 44.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 43.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 43.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 31.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 25.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 24.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 23.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 22.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 17.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 16.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.