MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9b557246e7276b884e497dad02c2ccc6dc145a2d4c9a3a6524c7027a93de9e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 8,089$5,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,953.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 7,508$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,557.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.98 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 5,224$2,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.35 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 4,246$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.72 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 2,021$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 1,223$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 1,214$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 1,140$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 947.17$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.55 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 576.78$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 427.18$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 408.16$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.24 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 387$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.38 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 363.01$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 299$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 290.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…442fbacked Miami Marlins | 18c | 229.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…ce6cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 197.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 191.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 161.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 129.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 110.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 97.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 95.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 76.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 71.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 60.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 50.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 42.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…3eefbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 39.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 23.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 16.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.