MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16f6e64651755f4692533c69d846d5d0b1295e1f1cb27b912a6563a4b06e0233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 19,750$10,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,877.08 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 12,068$5,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,700.12 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 0c | 10,322$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 48c | 6,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.99 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 506 | 52.6%266 W · 240 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 47c | 3,411$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.63 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 3,103$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.76 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 2,004$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.12 | 486 | 45.7%222 W · 264 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 52c | 1,622$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.65 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 41c | 1,560$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.83 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 1,397$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.95 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,308$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.5 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 1,182$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.8 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 909$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.68 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 827.94$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.45 | 2,314 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,098 L | +26.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 750.96$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.52 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 654.57$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.28 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 47c | 649.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.49 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 510.01$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.21 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 50c | 500$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 837 | 42.8%358 W · 479 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,205 | 49%591 W · 614 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 328.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 51c | 309$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 1,894 | 49.3%934 W · 960 L | +24.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 244.81$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 52c | 221$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 185.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 35c | 116$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 789 | 50.1%395 W · 394 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 48c | 105.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 49c | 75.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 435 | 49.2%214 W · 221 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 179 | 44.7%80 W · 99 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 52c | 45.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 410 | 48.5%199 W · 211 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcee…acdcbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 39.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 360 | 48.9%176 W · 184 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 37.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Over | 36c | 30.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 49c | 29.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 47c | 29.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 39c | 28.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 403 | 53.3%215 W · 188 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 49c | 27.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 559 | 51.9%290 W · 269 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 19.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.