Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9be81fc4f99b4edb00f5d6ba757afb453a519328718eca354bc765df135496c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vacherotof Rinderknech, Vacherot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rinderknech | 10c | 9,073$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Rinderknech | 12c | 7,471$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.38 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Vacherot | 71c | 7,168$5,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.8 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rinderknech | 7c | 4,170$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.79 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rinderknech | 11c | 3,480$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.74 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Vacherot | 39c | 2,642$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.8 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vacherot | 64c | 2,557$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.12 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Rinderknech | 25c | 1,871$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.49 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Rinderknech | 61c | 1,780$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.8 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Vacherot | 36c | 1,378$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Rinderknech | 12c | 1,268$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.41 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rinderknech | 68c | 1,040$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.23 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Vacherot | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Rinderknech | 58c | 899.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Rinderknech | 61c | 862.3$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Vacherot | 49c | 857$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.07 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Rinderknech | 51c | 777$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.27 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Vacherot | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Rinderknech | 79c | 665.81$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.99 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Rinderknech | 80c | 615.94$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.47 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Rinderknech | 47c | 555.91$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.29 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Vacherot | 25c | 530$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Rinderknech | 7c | 510$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Rinderknech | 61c | 499.78$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.56 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Rinderknech | 57c | 445.42$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.89 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Vacherot | 53c | 416.08$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.72 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Vacherot | 41c | 406.92$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.01 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Vacherot | 36c | 398.35$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.24 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Vacherot | 63c | 359.23$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Rinderknech | 49c | 337.82$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Rinderknech | 67c | 253.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…3eeebacked Rinderknech | 14c | 245.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Vacherot | 48c | 222.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Rinderknech | 59c | 182.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rinderknech | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Rinderknech | 15c | 165.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Vacherot | 25c | 160.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Rinderknech | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3579…0cbfbacked Rinderknech | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Rinderknech | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Vacherot | 23c | 110.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rinderknech | 61c | 103.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Rinderknech | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Vacherot | 26c | 75.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Vacherot | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Vacherot | 36c | 71.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Rinderknech | 60c | 61.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Rinderknech | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Vacherot | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Vacherot | 30c | 43.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rinderknech | 57c | 41.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Vacherot | 61c | 32.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Rinderknech | 62c | 27.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.