NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Devils: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa37489c006392ca63524835bec0862414a60b45449a4dd2a42d9aced12bfe1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Under | 52c | 1,271$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 673.51$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.6 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 17c | 456.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 351.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 49c | 227.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 69c | 199.57$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 49c | 176.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 156.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 52c | 154.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 66c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 141.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Under | 51c | 138.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…3728backed Over | 37c | 135.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Under | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 95.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…35b9backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 88.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 48c | 85.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Under | 52c | 63.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Over | 60c | 43.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2772…e6c7backed Under | 43c | 39.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 68c | 34.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 48c | 31.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…5983backed Over | 48c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…a41ebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Devils: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. DevilsCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Devils: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Devils: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.