TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Celtics (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86dd…98aabacked Celtics50c200.13$100 inWon+$100.13944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks50c197.64$99 inLost-$98.985,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d30…2645backed Celtics46c163$75 inWon+$88.027448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Celtics49c69$34 inWon+$35.199050%45 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd59e…e640backed Bucks56c40$22 inLost-$22.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Bucks54c34$18 inLost-$18.364242.9%18 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Bucks51c34$17 inLost-$17.343246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bd…0da6backed Bucks54c32$17 inLost-$17.284344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x934a…9096backed Bucks54c31$17 inLost-$16.742437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Celtics45c31$14 inWon+$17.059446.8%44 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd253…14d9backed Bucks51c29$15 inLost-$14.793050%15 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d4…523cbacked Celtics49c28$14 inWon+$14.281136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x26fc…2286backed Bucks54c28$15 inLost-$15.125552.7%29 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2949…76bcbacked Bucks54c27$15 inLost-$14.582445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd84f…0475backed Bucks55c19$10 inLost-$10.453250%16 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.