NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c7ef1c9e500d782692eecd9abce836c5b1a1d5fb243b70ca43eb765c93b72f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060e…2384backed Over | 47c | 19,891$9,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,347.96 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 17,914$9,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,558.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 48c | 14,419$6,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,921.12 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 12,129$6,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,943.25 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 9,000$4,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,230 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f6…fbfbbacked Under | 52c | 5,942$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,852.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 4,870$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.96 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 52c | 3,462$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.54 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Under | 52c | 2,788$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.46 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 1,437$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.22 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 1,176$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 48c | 750$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 52c | 527$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 53c | 526.75$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.57 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 52c | 379.71$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 52c | 229.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 173.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1af4…2e86backed Under | 53c | 130.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 52c | 118.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 54c | 114.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 52c | 100.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 53c | 94.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…3117backed Under | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…9406backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…25bbbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 54c | 45.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…28bdbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 51c | 40.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…b890backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…272ebacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…c64fbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…80d8backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ac…e8aabacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…f911backed Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd125…f654backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…2452backed Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Under | 53c | 23.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Over | 49c | 22.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd72c…1e72backed Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…ec44backed Under | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
- Bucks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 189.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 198.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 202.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 204.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 206.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 211.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Under won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Luka Garza: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Sam Hauser: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-13.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-15.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-17.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-23.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.