TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x060e…2384backed Over47c19,891$9,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,347.968037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c17,914$9,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,558.959,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Over48c14,419$6,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,921.1221057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under51c12,129$6,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,943.252,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Over48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9938253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under53c9,000$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,23066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37f6…fbfbbacked Under52c5,942$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,852.31850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over49c4,870$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.963,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Under51c3,500$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71519147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Under52c3,462$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.5412649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Under52c2,788$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.4618343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over47c1,437$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.223,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57632051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under52c1,176$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.486,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over48c750$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36040947.7%195 W · 214 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30022648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Under52c527$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.9617953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Under53c526.75$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5747651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.71,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.621,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Under52c379.71$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.2617233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Under52c229.09$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9643244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Over49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9835744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9624946.6%116 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9495047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over50c173.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.68,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Under53c169.81$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.817040%28 W · 42 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1af4…2e86backed Under53c130.19$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under52c118.16$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.724,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under54c114.81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8153149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Under52c100.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0811048.2%53 W · 57 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Under53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4716052.5%84 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4641354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under52c97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5654351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Under53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3451651.2%264 W · 252 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under53c94.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.311,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.949351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under53c52.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8362546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be6…3117backed Under53c49.06$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.061650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ea…9406backed Under53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.172147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4c…25bbbacked Under53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Under54c45.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1338347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a4…28bdbacked Over48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under51c40.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8336649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4a…4fb5backed Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.744346.5%20 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94e7…b890backed Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab15…272ebacked Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1750…c64fbacked Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd1…80d8backed Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ac…e8aabacked Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1855…f911backed Under53c30.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.191050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.737959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Over49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked Over48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.415253.3%81 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd125…f654backed Under53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32763%17 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7b2…2452backed Under53c24.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.531050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdc7…31c0backed Under53c23.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.178746%40 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Over49c22.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd72c…1e72backed Under53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.64966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f2f…ec44backed Under53c20.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.751080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+57.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.