Token Launches · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb1971fc997e2107ec6a54e487c196d89b2aa62b2b91d34e4cb4e66189c2c7ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 421.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3e52backed Yes | 34c | 290$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 74c | 269.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae98…210cbacked Yes | 29c | 244.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 12c | 234$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 154.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 24c | 114$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…e0dfbacked Yes | 27c | 106.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 68c | 105.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…bb86backed Yes | 19c | 101.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 17c | 59.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…00a3backed Yes | 35c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked No | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed No | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 30c | 36.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91b…4f1ebacked Yes | 36c | 33.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…c834backed Yes | 80c | 13.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by March 31?this page
- Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by April 30?No won
- Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.