Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb28e762bfef55a5549b9407c7fe0df6193558ea78768237629f010fd74016a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,110$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.97 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 56c | 402.37$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 37c | 346.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 59c | 330.45$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 42c | 216.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 52c | 190.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 62c | 169.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 60c | 166.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 151.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 145.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 144.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 123.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked No | 77c | 109.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 108.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 105.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 99.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 89.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…077fbacked No | 61c | 79.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 61c | 78.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 77.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked No | 72c | 76.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 42c | 76.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 41c | 70.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 40c | 65.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 62.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 60.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 52.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 61c | 49.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 56c | 48.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…a253backed No | 62c | 47.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…13b3backed No | 62c | 46.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe753…f67cbacked Yes | 41c | 45.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 60c | 41.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…4501backed Yes | 42c | 36.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 34.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed No | 53c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 49c | 32.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…aeedbacked Yes | 40c | 30.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 39c | 29.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 68c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 74c | 25.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 42c | 23.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 56c | 23.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 23.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 58c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.