Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6674e7544d2401faf8ba0adfc9a65658d024038a00b872b463bcddaf6b0697ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 44c | 306.79$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 8c | 250.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 37c | 243.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 56c | 240.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 233.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.43 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 52c | 210.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 183.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 160.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 152.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 144.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 136$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 133.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 133.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 132.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 126.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 105.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 37c | 100.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 93.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 15c | 91.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 90.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 41c | 83.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 44c | 77.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 74.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 72.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 71.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 64.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 57.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 52.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 49.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 49.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 65c | 47.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 45.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 53c | 44.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 38c | 44.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…5b93backed No | 63c | 40.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 39.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x265a…c172backed Yes | 39c | 35.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…1e40backed No | 65c | 35.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 31.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 31.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7e…0f89backed Yes | 39c | 31.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…d39fbacked Yes | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e8…4175backed Yes | 36c | 28.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0a…d177backed No | 65c | 26.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…69aabacked No | 63c | 26.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 25.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 25.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…81b1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 56c | 24.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 75c | 23.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 23.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…9a70backed Yes | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.