CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb45df49f32d02b160c6e2d811a2dbe2af69e5068f82546ee97189c3ba874b69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, Phantom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Phantom | 43c | 3,559$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.78 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Phantom | 41c | 2,618$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.3 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked fnatic | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…8044backed fnatic | 57c | 1,639$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.83 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…44b7backed fnatic | 50c | 1,443$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.44 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed fnatic | 63c | 702.25$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.28 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed fnatic | 54c | 648.06$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.97 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed Phantom | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phantom | 41c | 456.55$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.49 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Phantom | 37c | 276.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed fnatic | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked fnatic | 58c | 249.95$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed fnatic | 67c | 194.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked fnatic | 65c | 169.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…40fcbacked fnatic | 70c | 137.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Phantom | 31c | 133.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed fnatic | 65c | 114.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked fnatic | 50c | 101.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 259 | 44.8%116 W · 143 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Phantom | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Phantom | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked fnatic | 61c | 87.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Phantom | 37c | 78.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic | 45c | 78.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Phantom | 28c | 74.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Phantom | 23c | 61.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked fnatic | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 480 | 52.3%251 W · 229 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked fnatic | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked fnatic | 52c | 52.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Phantom | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 133 | 24.8%33 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Phantom | 36c | 37.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked Phantom | 55c | 34.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Phantom | 38c | 32.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 270 | 15.2%41 W · 229 L | -41.9wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Phantom | 46c | 28.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Phantom | 42c | 25.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed fnatic | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom - Map 1 Winnerfnatic won
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)fnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.