CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9a6ddb5ab1c527677874718326e8996edf5718fa1411a1dc0e37eaf6878bde6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, Phantom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928a…8044backed fnatic | 65c | 5,919$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.7 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Phantom | 35c | 3,564$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.64 | 336 | 27.7%93 W · 243 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Phantom | 35c | 3,324$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.49 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked fnatic | 63c | 2,453$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.02 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Phantom | 20c | 1,988$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.6 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Phantom | 34c | 1,721$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.39 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked fnatic | 80c | 1,508$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.56 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Phantom | 31c | 652$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked fnatic | 78c | 572.74$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.34 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Phantom | 37c | 509$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked fnatic | 64c | 499.95$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.98 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed fnatic | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Phantom | 43c | 303.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked fnatic | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed fnatic | 66c | 298.32$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked fnatic | 73c | 295.41$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Phantom | 28c | 252.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -19.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Phantom | 35c | 249.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed fnatic | 55c | 243.63$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Phantom | 36c | 236.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Phantom | 35c | 180.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked fnatic | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed fnatic | 75c | 144.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Phantom | 30c | 119.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed fnatic | 77c | 106.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Phantom | 44c | 97.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed fnatic | 70c | 93.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed fnatic | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked fnatic | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed fnatic | 76c | 87.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed fnatic | 65c | 84.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30e…5ecebacked Phantom | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed Phantom | 37c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked fnatic | 64c | 77.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 480 | 52.3%251 W · 229 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…5399backed Phantom | 35c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked Phantom | 34c | 75.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 279 | 40.5%113 W · 166 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed fnatic | 69c | 71.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 309 | 51.5%159 W · 150 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Phantom | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Phantom | 24c | 63.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Phantom | 35c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed1…eedbbacked fnatic | 55c | 55.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Phantom | 38c | 50.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…eeb3backed fnatic | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Phantom | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Phantom | 43c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Phantom | 33c | 47.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked fnatic | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 99 | 70.7%70 W · 29 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…3f58backed Phantom | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Phantom | 29c | 44.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 270 | 15.2%41 W · 229 L | -41.9wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed fnatic | 66c | 44.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Phantom | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…3f88backed Phantom | 35c | 34.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -5.6wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed fnatic | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked fnatic | 55c | 31.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Phantom | 37c | 30.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 217 | 41.5%90 W · 127 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Phantom | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 288 | 56.6%163 W · 125 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked fnatic | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed fnatic | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Phantom | 45c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…5952backed fnatic | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…9e0ebacked fnatic | 61c | 20.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed fnatic | 72c | 19.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked fnatic | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 89 | 88.8%79 W · 10 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom - Map 1 Winnerfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)fnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.