Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfba71d3c8fdf337ac41ea213115b8c70d63f0cf497d3c5da64c1f365458c3c3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Michelsen, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Mannarino | 56c | 1,398$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Michelsen | 44c | 1,384$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.92 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Mannarino | 55c | 1,265$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…585cbacked Michelsen | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Michelsen | 45c | 765.51$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.85 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Mannarino | 55c | 627.27$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…7c7dbacked Michelsen | 49c | 153.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Mannarino | 51c | 112.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Mannarino | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Michelsen | 27c | 95.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Mannarino | 43c | 89.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 545 | 41.7%227 W · 318 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Michelsen | 57c | 89.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Michelsen | 49c | 61.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Mannarino | 33c | 52.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Michelsen | 67c | 52.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mannarino | 51c | 34.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Michelsen | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Mannarino | 51c | 29.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)this page
- Alex Michelsen vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex Michelsen vs Adrian MannarinoAlex Michelsen won
- Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs MannarinoMichelsen won
- Set 2 Winner: Michelsen vs MannarinoMichelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.