MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc127b1e6579ef57eea4615e5bb681899a1b52dd47e37a2699d132ddf013da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,802 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Philadelphia Phillies | 0c | 3,379$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 3,208$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.48 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 2,085$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.21 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 1,491$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.66 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 887.91$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.64 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 681.6$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 559$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.14 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 538.36$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 523.5$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.66 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 509.13$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.67 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 475$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.04 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 471.2$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 437.97$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.31 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 406$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.68 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 400$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.61 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 350.39$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 347.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.53 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 307$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 66c | 256.38$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 249.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 242.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 213.51$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 200.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…b6bdbacked Minnesota Twins | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 157.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 128.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 90.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 79.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 73.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 66.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 64.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 60.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 53.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 50.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 43.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 39.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 37.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 33.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 29.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.