Us Politics · resolved market
Will a candidate say "COVID" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc59efff21424fbf6fdff503b1891412b403974931f39c6044fb9e9509d8faae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ab7…15a7backed No | 31c | 995$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…90d9backed Yes | 69c | 670$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b3…10c6backed No | 32c | 430$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 65c | 353.43$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58dd…0ed1backed Yes | 69c | 330$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 67c | 305.76$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 36c | 252.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9040…9e22backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed No | 32c | 175$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…832fbacked No | 34c | 145$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…d1a5backed No | 32c | 145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…23ebbacked Yes | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +252%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…7c18backed Yes | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…adbfbacked Yes | 68c | 115.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…f96bbacked Yes | 68c | 115$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…4c80backed Yes | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 65c | 100.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked No | 35c | 97.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 32c | 90.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…b3d0backed Yes | 71c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8617backed No | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…174fbacked No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…f50cbacked No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…90f7backed Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…4790backed No | 30c | 65.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed No | 34c | 58.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 21c | 51.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 74c | 49.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 72c | 47.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…a73abacked Yes | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…b081backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…43b5backed No | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…2daabacked No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…11f3backed No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…2da7backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87c…8c12backed Yes | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…1c4ebacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…0c57backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 57cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…f534backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…7cbebacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…3ea6backed No | 39c | 27.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…7f60backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf304…40fabacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…3553backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…236cbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a candidate say "COVID" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?this page
- Will a candidate say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Antisemite" or "Antisemitism" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Bail" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Crime" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Hamas" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Homeless" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "LaGuardia" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Nursing home" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Pervert" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Pizza" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Rent" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Subway" 5+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.