Us Politics · resolved market
Will a candidate say "Nursing home" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eecac5383b91c94399ac228cadfa388824d3f50e3922239dd31bdfbfe444267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39f2…d0a5backed No | 41c | 37,483$15,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,368.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…1fffbacked Yes | 59c | 37,483$22,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,368.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…9df2backed Yes | 60c | 31,433$18,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,573.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…5f8bbacked No | 40c | 31,433$12,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,573.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…f530backed Yes | 60c | 960$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…941ebacked Yes | 60c | 770$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 39c | 765.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…af32backed No | 40c | 560$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 57c | 546$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.2 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…fb0ebacked No | 40c | 510$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…9ab0backed No | 40c | 505$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…6eb7backed No | 40c | 485$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 44c | 440$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.2 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 56c | 385.4$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.74 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7db4…241cbacked Yes | 60c | 335$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c10bbacked Yes | 60c | 330$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…8d58backed Yes | 60c | 325$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed Yes | 60c | 325$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…11f3backed No | 44c | 310$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b3…10c6backed No | 40c | 310$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…9eb0backed Yes | 63c | 283.14$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes | 60c | 283.06$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…c295backed No | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…43b5backed No | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…f96bbacked No | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…23ebbacked No | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +252%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca8…9779backed Yes | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes | 63c | 157.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…af26backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 40c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…86d8backed No | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked No | 46c | 71.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 62c | 48.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 44c | 42.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…b081backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…1f1bbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9040…9e22backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…f50cbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 75c | 36.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…3ea6backed No | 41c | 24.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…7c18backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…62dbbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…2da7backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a candidate say "Nursing home" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?this page
- Will a candidate say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Antisemite" or "Antisemitism" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Bail" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "COVID" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Crime" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Hamas" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Homeless" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "LaGuardia" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Pervert" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Pizza" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Rent" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Subway" 5+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.