Us Politics · resolved market
Will a candidate say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47113d79890d63ecad88e870e74bde15966c211be7bf33c1db13ee957fd65d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 33c | 264.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 62c | 239.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 28c | 228.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 27c | 210.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…02cfbacked Yes | 65c | 205$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…8161backed Yes | 72c | 184$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 35c | 178$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 67c | 169$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…a3cbbacked No | 30c | 164$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94cd…0eeebacked No | 35c | 154$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 72c | 130.78$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked No | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…40d9backed No | 27c | 123.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 71c | 120.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 109.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 25c | 54.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 33c | 49.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…af99backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 70c | 26.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…4d85backed Yes | 72c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a candidate say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?this page
- Will a candidate say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Antisemite" or "Antisemitism" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Bail" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "COVID" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Crime" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Hamas" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Homeless" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "LaGuardia" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Nursing home" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Pervert" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?No won
- Will a candidate say "Pizza" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Rent" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
- Will a candidate say "Subway" 5+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.