CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfca30fe65d4849428f4ae9693a4391136601fe9ba90f4c971f048a121364ba2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof paiN, Phantom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phantom | 12c | 4,580$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.95 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…6003backed paiN | 80c | 1,252$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.7 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Phantom | 30c | 1,008$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.18 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Phantom | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Phantom | 6c | 645.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 610 | 34.3%209 W · 401 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Phantom | 17c | 596.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…5dc6backed Phantom | 17c | 583.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 54.5%73 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Phantom | 18c | 550.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phantom | 33c | 546.46$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Phantom | 24c | 499.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked paiN | 69c | 483.01$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cb…57d1backed paiN | 77c | 461.13$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Phantom | 6c | 422.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 383 | 12.8%49 W · 334 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Phantom | 17c | 319.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 401 | 37.2%149 W · 252 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed paiN | 59c | 305.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Phantom | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Phantom | 10c | 230.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Phantom | 41c | 228$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Phantom | 39c | 223.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed paiN | 55c | 199.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 559 | 41%229 W · 330 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Phantom | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 723 | 53.5%387 W · 336 L | +28.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed paiN | 78c | 139.87$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 73 | 74%54 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb15…5485backed paiN | 73c | 135.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Phantom | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…fc1abacked Phantom | 12c | 130.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0420…58bbbacked Phantom | 20c | 120.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Phantom | 44c | 117.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed Phantom | 43c | 117.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked paiN | 72c | 109.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 431 | 52.9%228 W · 203 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Phantom | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed paiN | 71c | 92.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…ae26backed Phantom | 22c | 91.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Phantom | 40c | 74.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Phantom | 20c | 74.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…9fdabacked paiN | 60c | 63.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Phantom | 32c | 62.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed paiN | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 392 | 58.2%228 W · 164 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed Phantom | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 593 | 54.8%325 W · 268 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec24…d744backed Phantom | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked paiN | 60c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed paiN | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked paiN | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…186ebacked paiN | 68c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 333 | 62.2%207 W · 126 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 PlayoffsPhantom won
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom - Map 2 WinnerPhantom won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)Phantom won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.